COULD THE GROWTH OF THE COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET BE JUST AROUND THE CORNER?

Sam Chandon, global chief economist of Real Capital Analytics writes an excellent article at The New York Observer titled: Why the Rosier Employment Report Still Falls Short.  To summarize, he believes the recent employment report paints a very optimistic picture about the rise of jobs and the overall improvement of the economy.   After all, February saw the largest one-month improvement in jobs added to the US market since May 2010. However, due to factors such as the slow rate of job growth and rising global political and economical conditions, the commercial real estate sector, in particular, may see a slower increase in business than expected.

Chandon writes:

“In areas that are more directly relevant for prime office-space demand, the results have been consistently disappointing. Information services reported no increase in jobs in February. In the financial services sector, employment fell by 2,000 jobs over the month; and this sector has almost 50,000 fewer jobs than a year earlier. While many financial institutions have reported robust recoveries in profit levels, these gains have yet to translate into an observable improvement in the sector’s overall employment levels.”

We agree with Chandon. One month of job gains does not a trend make.