ARE WE DELAYING THE INEVITABLE?

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FALLING RENTS AND INCREASING INCENTIVES TO ATTRACT TENANTS

The Wall Street Journal reports,

“Office buildings often don’t show financial strain in the early stages of a downturn because they are occupied by tenants who have signed long-term leases. As long as the tenants stay in business, their landlords can even see revenue increases because of escalation clauses in their contracts.

The pain starts hitting when leases expire. In tough markets, landlords typically have to spend a lot to retain or attract tenants through brokerage commissions or incentives such as free rent or interior construction. The cost of attracting tenants is a factor that is cutting into funds from operations.”

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A COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE CRASH?
WILBUR ROSS THINKS SO

Wilbur Ross, Billionaire investor thinks the U.S. is in the beginning of a “huge crash in commercial real estate.”

“All of the components of real estate value are going in the wrong direction simultaneously,” said Ross. “Occupancy rates are going down. Rent rates are going down and the capitalization rate — the return that investors are demanding to buy a property — are going up.”

Ross suggests “extreme caution” before putting money into commercial real estate, especially office space, because properties are losing tenants.

More here

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COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE – WHAT INNING?

Tom Barrack is the chairman of Colony Capital. He controls some $40 Billion worth of real estate, spanning from hotels, to office properties, to Michael Jackson’s Neverland Ranch. When foreign investors look to place their money in the US they look to Colony Capital as one of the top players.

Tom Barrack Comments

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DOWNTOWN CHICAGO SEES THE FIRST CLASS A PROPERTY SELL THIS YEAR

In my opinion it’s questionable whether or not it lives up to standard of a Class A property. I guess it all depends on who is delivering the message.

The first Class A asset to sell downtown this year, McMorgan & Co. had sold its 311,000-square-foot 303 W. Madison. The 26-story building was purchased by an international real estate investor in a deal that closed Wednesday for a reported $60 million. Sold by CB Richard Ellis, which will continue to manage and lease the property, the building’s buyer is reported to be tequila maker Jose Cuervo.”

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FAS 13 – ARE YOU READY?

The proposed changes to the Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 13, known as FAS 13, which governs the accounting of leases, would reclassify “operating” leases as “capital” leases, ending the long-standing and long-debated practice of accounting for leases as off-balance-sheet transactions.

Costar has a nice segment on this found here.

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POOR UNDERWRITING CONTINUES

The delinquency rate on commercial mortgages jumped 33 basis points to 3.34 percent last month, according to Credit Suisse Group AG. Payments on $22.4 billion of mortgages were at least 60 days late in September, the report from the financial services firm said, a sharp increase from the same time period a year ago, when $3.2 billion in mortgages were delinquent. Credit Suisse analysts attributed the uptick in delinquencies to poor underwriting on recent loans, as borrowers expected rents on space — particularly retail — to keep rising.

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U.S. OFFICE VACANCIES REACH 5 YEAR HIGH OF 16.5%

Reis Inc., a New York based real estate research firm, reported 3rd quarter vacancy rates of 16.5%. Couple this with a climbing unemployment rate of 9.8% (Yikes) and there doesn’t seem to be a recovery of any sort happening here.

Rightly so, The Wall Street Journal is reporting (Fed Frets About Commercial Real Estate) that the Fed has concerns about commercial real estate and the speed with which banks are taking their losses.

The fact of the matter remains unless you have jobs growth there is no demand for office space. People can’t or won’t start new companies and existing employers are shedding space not expanding into space.

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TIME FOR TENANTS TO CHEER

For tenants, the next two years will offer an opportunity to secure dramatically low cost office space. Here’s why:

CURRENT MARKET CONDITIONS

The unemployment rate increased from 8.1% in February to 8.5% in March. Adding insult to injury, January job losses were revised from 655,000 non-farm payrolls to 741,000. Since the recession officially began in December 2007, the economy has lost 5.1 million jobs with almost two-thirds (3.3 million) of the decrease occurring in the last 5 months. Many are saying we’re skidding across the bottom of this severe recession but I disagree.

Commercial real estate is just beginning to show weakness that will eventually cripple many owners and force a wave of bankruptcies. In fact, 525 W. Van Buren was the first building to be sold in Chicago’s central business district for $130 million, $6 million less than what the seller or investor paid for it five years ago. This transaction is the first example of a significant downtown commercial real estate property changing hands for less than the seller paid.

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